Moderna Faces Challenges Amid Significant Stock Decline
With a market capitalization of $9.3 billion, Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is a biotechnology firm focused on developing messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. The company’s notable product is its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. Moderna is also advancing treatments for infectious diseases, oncology, and rare diseases, and has established multiple strategic global partnerships.
Share Performance Overview
Over the past 52 weeks, shares of the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company have significantly underperformed the broader market. Specifically, Moderna has decreased 80.1%, while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 8.7%. Year-to-date, MRNA stock is down 41.5%, contrasting with the S&P’s decline of only 4.1%.
Market Comparison
Taking a closer look, Moderna has fallen short compared to the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLV) 5.7% dip during the same period.
Recent Developments
On May 1, shares of Moderna dropped 5.3% after the FDA requested Phase 3 efficacy data for its COVID-19 and flu combination vaccine, mRNA-1083. This resulted in an expected approval timeline being pushed back to 2026 from late 2025. Additionally, the company reported weaker-than-expected Q1 2025 total revenue of $108 million. This shortfall was mainly due to lower-than-anticipated sales from mResvia, impacted by late-season approval and contracting. Furthermore, sales of Spikevax decreased by 50% year-over-year to $84 million, contributing to a 35% overall revenue decline.
Future Projections
For the fiscal year ending December 2025, analysts forecast that MRNA’s loss per share will decline 11.7% year-over-year to $9.91. Moderna’s history of exceeding earnings consensus estimates in the last four quarters offers some optimism.
Analyst Ratings
Among the 26 analysts covering the stock, the aggregate consensus rating is a “Hold,” based on three “Strong Buy” ratings, 19 “Holds,” one “Moderate Sell,” and three “Strong Sells.” This is a slight decline in bullish sentiment compared to three months ago when four “Strong Buy” ratings were issued.
Investment Insights
On May 2, RBC Capital analyst Luca Issi lowered Moderna’s price target to $28, attributing this to short-term challenges reflected in its recent Q1 earnings and changes to its flu-COVID combo vaccine strategy. Despite the downgrade, RBC maintained a “Sector Perform” rating, citing optimism about Moderna’s cancer vaccine and its long-term platform capabilities.
Currently, MRNA is trading below the average price target of $55.09, with a Street-high price target of $208 suggesting considerable upside potential from current levels.
On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
