U.S. natural gas futures surged to their highest level in over a week on Friday, driven by forecasts predicting increased demand in the face of slightly cooler weather and the gradual return to production following the cold blast of last week.

Will the weather patterns be ideal for natural gas production? We delve into this curious conundrum.

The forecast for temperatures in the Lower 48 states indicates a warmer than normal trend until at least February 10th, but there’s a slight cooling expected for the week of February 4th, promising a weather shift.

Data from financial firm LSEG indicates a projected drop in U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, from 144.6 billion cubic feet per day this week to 124.9 billion cubic feet per day next week. This is accompanied by a subsequent rise to 127.8 billion cubic feet per day in two weeks as the weather cools down.

However, Troy Vincent, senior market analyst at DTN, warns of a potential dampening of enthusiasm in the natural gas market with the season-to-date heating degree days running 3% below last year’s levels and 5% below the five-year average, alongside temperature forecasts that tilt towards above-average readings across most of the U.S. up to the first week of February.

What does the future hold for natural gas prices?

Front-month Nymex natural gas (NG1:COM) for February delivery concluded Friday with a gain of 5.5% at $2.712/MMBtu, marking its highest level since January 17th and wrapping up a 7.6% increase for the week.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:UNG), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG)

In other news circulating the natural gas sphere, Freeport LNG, an energy firm, announced that it anticipates one of the three liquefaction units at its Texas plant to be offline for approximately a month due to a technical issue stemming from last week’s extreme cold spell.

This development comes as the latest in a series of setbacks at the facility since its resumption of operations from an eight-month hiatus between June 2022 and February 2023 following a fire and explosion.

Each of the three liquefaction trains at Freeport has the capacity to transform around 700 million cubic feet per day of natural gas into liquefied natural gas.