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On Wednesday, October Nymex natural gas (NGV25) closed down by -0.088 (-2.82%) amid expectations of rising US gas inventories. The EIA’s report forecasts an increase of +69 bcf in nat-gas inventories for the week ending September 5, surpassing the five-year average of +56 bcf. Seasonal pipeline maintenance along the Gulf Coast is predicted to reduce nat-gas exports, further contributing to inventory builds.
As for production, US (lower-48) dry gas production reached 107.2 bcf/day (+5.9% year-on-year) while demand fell to 70.6 bcf/day (-2.0% year-on-year). The EIA recently increased its forecast for US nat-gas production in 2025 by +0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day. Meanwhile, active US nat-gas drilling rigs decreased by one to 118, down from a peak of 124 in early August.
In additional context, US electricity output rose +1.03% year-on-year to 83,003 GWh for the week ending September 6, suggesting increased nat-gas demand for power generation. As of September 7, European gas storage was at 79% capacity, compared to the five-year average of 86% for this time of year.
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