On Wednesday, February Nymex natural gas prices surged by +24.78%, closing at +0.968, reaching a six-week high. This spike follows forecasts of an impending Arctic cold front expected to impact more than 150 million people across 24 states, including Texas, raising concerns about heating demand and potential disruptions to gas production.
As of January 19, US dry gas production was reported at 110.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), reflecting a 12.3% year-over-year increase. However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its 2026 production forecast down to 107.4 bcf/day from 109.11 bcf/day. Additionally, the anticipated weekly EIA inventory report suggests a decline of -95 bcf for the week ending January 16.
Recent data also indicated that US electricity output for the week ended January 10 dropped by 13.15% year-over-year, totaling 79,189 GWh, while the total electricity production for the past 52 weeks increased by 2.5% year-over-year to 4,294,613 GWh. Furthermore, the number of active US natural gas drilling rigs has decreased to 122, down from a high of 130 recorded in late November.
