April Nymex natural gas (NGJ26) closed on Friday at $2.855, up +1.13% or +0.032. The rise in prices was driven by geopolitical risks, particularly concerns over a potential conflict with Iran disrupting liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, coinciding with crude oil prices reaching a seven-month high.
However, gains were tempered by forecasts of warmer-than-normal temperatures across the eastern US, which may reduce natural gas heating demand. The Commodity Weather Group predicts above-normal temperatures from March 4-13. US dry gas production was reported at 113.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), a 6.3% increase year-over-year, while gas demand was 86.0 bcf/day, up 5.9% year-over-year.
Notably, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2026 production forecast to 109.97 bcf/day. As of last week, the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs reached a 2.5-year high of 134, illustrating a significant increase from a low of 94 rigs in September 2024.
