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On Tuesday, August Nymex natural gas (NGQ25) closed at $3.52, up +0.057 (+1.64%), continuing a four-session rally and reaching a new 1.5-week high, driven by warmer US weather forecasts and near-record LNG exports.
Lower-48 state dry gas production was reported at 107.0 bcf/day (+3.0% y/y) while gas demand stood at 79.5 bcf/day (-6.5% y/y) on the same day. Estimated LNG net flows to US terminals were 15.2 bcf/day (-1.0% w/w).
As of July 4, nat-gas inventories rose by 53 bcf, slightly below the consensus of +61 bcf, with current storage down -6.0% y/y but +6.1% above the 5-year average. The Baker Hughes report showed 108 active nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 11, remaining steady from the previous week and up from a low of 94 rigs in September 2024.
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