Navigating Economic Indicators: Understanding ADP, GDP, and FOMC

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Market Update – July 30, 2025

Pre-market futures indicate modest gains with the Dow up 20 points, S&P 500 up 8 points, and Nasdaq up 50 points, following a slight selloff on Tuesday. Economic reports ahead of the market open contributed to this rise, with bond yields slightly increasing as anticipation built for the Federal Reserve meeting this afternoon.

Private-Sector Payroll Growth

Automated Data Processing (ADP) released data showing an increase of 104,000 new private-sector jobs for July, significantly beating the consensus estimate of 64,000 and recovering from a revised loss of 23,000 in June. Notably, small companies created 12,000 jobs while medium and large firms added 46,000 jobs each. The Leisure & Hospitality sector led with 46,000 jobs created, although Education & Healthcare saw a decline of 38,000 jobs.

Q2 GDP Shows Recovery

The initial print for Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was reported at 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.3% and rebounding from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1. Consumption also increased to 1.4% from 0.5% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the GDP Price Index decreased to 2.0%, the lowest since Q3 2024, indicating stable economic growth amid controlled inflation with no expected interest rate changes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting later today.

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