Nebius Increases Capital Expenditure to $20-$25 Billion: Strategic Expansion or Gamble?

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Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has announced a significant increase in its capital expenditure plan for AI infrastructure, now projected at $20-$25 billion by 2026, up from the previous $16-$20 billion. This escalation aims to address surging demand, with management confirming existing customer commitments for 2027 and noting that available capacity is already selling out.

As of the first quarter, Nebius reported $9.3 billion in cash and equivalents, supported by a strong operating cash flow of $2.3 billion. The company plans to leverage various funding sources, including contracts with Meta and Microsoft, to finance its expansion. Comparatively, Microsoft is set to invest approximately $190 billion in capex in 2026, with a substantial portion earmarked for AI infrastructure.

With competition intensifying, particularly from players like CoreWeave, which is aiming for $31-$35 billion in capex for 2026, Nebius’ strategic investment will be crucial for achieving its ambitious annual recurring revenue targets.

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