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December arabica coffee (KCZ25) rose by +4.45 (+1.14%) while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) declined by -82 (-1.85%) on October 30, 2023. Coffee prices hit a new two-week low due to forecasts of rain in Brazil, which could alleviate dry conditions impacting coffee-growing regions, particularly Minas Gerais, where rainfall was only 0.3 mm last week, or 1% of the historical average.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva indicated potential discussions to lift the US’s 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, following constructive talks with President Trump. In addition, robusta coffee faces downward pressure as Vietnam’s coffee production is projected to rise by 10% for the 2025/26 season, according to Vicofa. Meanwhile, ICE arabica coffee inventories are at a 1.5-year low of 447,773 bags.
Global coffee exports for the current marketing year have increased by 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, indicating sufficient supply. The USDA forecasts a 2.5% increase in global coffee production for 2025/26, projecting Brazil’s output to rise to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s to reach a four-year high of 31 million bags.
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