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On Thursday, December arabica coffee closed up +0.75 (+0.20%) while November ICE robusta coffee declined by -40 (-0.90%). This rise in coffee prices follows a decrease in Brazil’s 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, according to Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency.
Additionally, Brazil’s total coffee production estimate for 2025 was reduced by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags. Tighter ICE coffee inventories are reinforcing price support, with robusta inventories reaching a one-month low of 6,552 lots and arabica inventories at a 1.25-year low of 686,863 bags.
Jul y coffee exports globally also decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags. In Brazil, July unroasted coffee exports fell 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. Conversely, Vietnam’s coffee production for 2023/24 is projected to drop 20% year-on-year to 1.472 million metric tons, marking the smallest crop in four years.
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