March New York world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed on Tuesday at +0.04 (+0.27%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) dropped -1.00 (-0.24%), marking London sugar’s lowest price in 2.5 months. The price fluctuations are attributed to a stronger Brazilian real, which has risen to a 20-month high, discouraging sugar exports from Brazil.
Brazil’s sugar output for the 2025-26 season is projected at 45 million metric tons (MMT), reflecting a 0.9% year-over-year increase, according to Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency. Additionally, the Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a 22% year-on-year rise in India’s sugar production for the 2025-26 season, estimating total output at 31 MMT, which could boost exports amid higher global sugar supply forecasts.
Global sugar production is set to rise significantly, with the USDA predicting a 4.6% increase to a record 189.318 MMT in 2025-26. This surplus outlook includes contributions from Brazil, India, Thailand, and Pakistan, putting downward pressure on prices, despite an expected rise in global sugar consumption to 177.921 MMT.
