March WTI crude oil fell by $1.19 (-1.96%) and March RBOB gasoline dropped by $0.0412 (-2.19%) today, following signals from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy regarding progress in peace talks with Russia. The decline accelerated after the EIA reported a surprising increase in crude oil inventories by 3.6 million barrels and a jump in gasoline supplies by 5.98 million barrels, reaching a nearly five-year high.
Recent geopolitical developments include planned trilateral meetings among the US, Russia, and Ukraine aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict. The situation in Iran, where unrest has resulted in thousands of fatalities and potential military action from the US, is also influencing crude prices. As of January 16, US crude production slightly decreased to 13.732 million barrels per day. The number of active US oil rigs rose to 410, but remains close to a multi-year low.
In global markets, OPEC’s December crude production increased by 40,000 barrels per day to 29.03 million, while the IEA reduced its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.7 million barrels per day. China’s crude imports are projected to hit a record 12.2 million barrels per day, a 10% month-over-month increase, as the country replenishes its inventories.
