On January 30, March WTI crude oil closed up 1.07 (+1.72%) at $63.23 per barrel, while March RBOB gasoline rose by 0.0465 (+2.51%). The price increases followed a weakening dollar and heightened US-Iranian tensions after a US Navy drone strike on an approaching Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea.
President Trump’s decision to roll back tariffs on India contingent on India ceasing Russian oil purchases has further supported crude prices, with Indian imports of Russian crude dropping to 1.2 million bpd in December—an over three-year low. Additionally, OPEC+ announced it would pause production increases through Q1 2026 amidst a growing global oil surplus.
Meanwhile, the IEA revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.7 million bpd, and the EIA reported a projected drop in US crude inventories by 640,000 barrels, while gasoline supplies are anticipated to rise by 750,000 barrels. US crude production for the week ending January 23 saw a slight decline to 13.696 million bpd.
