In late 2025, specifically on December 29, 2025, a trader purchased 355 of the standard NDX Feb 24700 Puts for 349.80 and sold the same number of NDX Feb 23700 Puts for 157.40 resulting in a net cost of 192.40. The Nasdaq-100 (NDX) was at 25,490 and based on a couple of rolls, it appears this is a hedging transaction. The payoff below sticks with the assumption that this bear put spread was combined with a long position in the NDX.
Data sources: Bloomberg and author calculations
If the trade is open through expiration and NDX is over 24,700 the result is a 0.75% drag on performance. Between the two strike prices the portfolio would be down 3.85% while the index could be as much as 7.02% lower. Below 23,700 losses would start to accumulate fo the spread based on the short leg offsetting the benefit of the long leg.
The late 2025 transaction was the first of three trades that appear to be matched up with a long NDX portfolio. The second transaction exited the February spread and entered a similar position using standard April contracts.
On February 5, 2026, NDX the original put spread was closed out for a small profit and a new slightly larger put spread was executed using April contracts. The exit portion of the spread sold the NDX Feb 24700 Puts for 480.64 and covered the short NDX Feb 23700 Puts at 159.06 taking in a credit of 321.58 or a profit of 129.18 for the Feb put spread. The NDX was lower by 749 points at 24,741 or about 2.94% lower than when the put spread was purchased. When the 129.18 profit is factored in, the net result is a portfolio loss of 2.43% or a cushion of 0.51%.
A new bear put spread, of a slightly different size was entered in conjunction with closing out the February put spread. Again, with NDX at 24,741 a trader purchased 408 NDX Apr 24000 Puts for 671.44 who sold the same number of NDX Apr 22800 Puts for 404.14 and a net cost of 267.30. The payoff if held to April expiration and assuming this bear put spread is combined with a long position in the underlying appears below.
Data sources: Bloomberg and author calculations
If held to expiration, this hedge would result in a performance drag of 1.08%, higher than the cost of the original spread indicating they still have concerns regarding NDX. Between 3.00% and 7.85% lower for the index results in a 4.08% loss for the portfolio.
Like the first transaction discussed in this analysis, this trade was exited early and another position using farther dated contracts was initiated. On March 20, 2026, with NDX at 24,049, the NDX Apr 24000 Puts were sold for 618.60 and NDX Apr 22800 Puts were purchased for 286.80 taking in a credit of 331.80 for a small profit of 64.50 or 0.26% of where NDX was when the April put spread was purchased, offsetting a portion of the 692 point or 2.80% loss for the index.
The current open portion of this trade was executed at the same time as when the April leg was closed. This time both trades were the same size. Again, with NDX at 24,049, a trader purchased 408 of the NDX May 23000 Puts for 554.60 and the same number of the May 21000 Puts were sold for 223.80 resulting in a net cost of 330.80. Although it is likely this trade may be exited or rolled before expiration, the payoff below shows the benefit of combining this put spread with a long NDX position.
Data sources: Bloomberg and author calculations
This third trade is more aggressive than the first two trades with the cost a bit higher (1.38% of the index) and the cushion wider (no benefit until index is 4.36% lower). The aggressive nature of this trade makes us think the entity behind the first two successful trades continues to be bearish and aggressively more bearish than in late 2025 or early 2026. Time will tell if their concerns are legitimate.
