As of today, July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) has increased by 1.13% to $0.16, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) has decreased by 1.55% to $475.50. This price fluctuation follows Pakistan’s announcement of plans to import 250,000 metric tons of raw sugar due to a poor sugarcane harvest, which contributed to short covering in sugar futures.1
Sugar prices have experienced a downward trend over the past three months, reaching a four-year low due to expectations of a global surplus. The USDA projected a 4.7% year-over-year increase in global sugar production for 2025/26, totaling a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with a surplus of 41.188 MMT. In contrast, India’s production is expected to rise by 19% to 35 MMT, supported by favorable rainfall conditions.2
Further bearish trends are emerging as Thailand’s sugar production is anticipated to increase by 14% to 10 MMT for 2024/25, while Brazil’s production has been predicted to fall by 3.4% due to adverse weather conditions. The International Sugar Organization has raised its global sugar deficit forecast for 2024/25 to a nine-year high of -5.47 MMT, indicating market tightening after a previous surplus.3
