By Jihoon Lee
Steady Growth in Sight
SEOUL, March 28 (Reuters) – South Korea’s exports are forecast to extend their upward trajectory in March, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth. This surge is spearheaded by a relentless appetite for semiconductors, as indicated by a Reuters poll conducted on Thursday.
Analysts predict that exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy will have expanded by 5.2% in March compared to the same period last year, according to a median estimate derived from a survey of 10 economists.
Contextualizing the Momentum
This anticipated rise follows a 4.8% uptick in February, the most sluggish among the ongoing streak of yearly increases that commenced in October. Notably, February’s figures were skewed by a less favorable base due to the timing discrepancy of the Lunar New Year holidays.
South Korea stands out as the primary major exporting nation to unveil its monthly trade data, offering an initial glimpse into the prevailing global demand.
Steering Forces Behind Growth
“The momentum in export growth, driven by the semiconductor industry, remains intact, while we also witness a robust uptrend in the exports of ships and home appliances,” noted Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities.
Chun further added, “Expectations point towards a sustained robustness in exports bound for the U.S., alongside visible improvements in shipments to China.”
Notably, during the initial 20 days of March, exports surged by 11.2%, propelled by a remarkable 46.5% increase in chip exports, a trend that has been consistently ascending since November.
Forecast and Projections
“The rebound in domestic exports, spearheaded by the semiconductor sector, is set to continue as global manufacturing activities exhibit signs of recovery, albeit at a measured pace,” stated Park Sang-hyun, an economist at HI Investment Securities.
On the flip side, the survey also predicts a downturn in imports by 8.1% in March compared to a year earlier, following a 13.1% dip witnessed in February. If this holds true, it would signify the 13th consecutive month of dwindling imports for South Korea.
South Korea is slated to release its trade data for March on Monday, April 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
(Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Polling by Devayani Sathyan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
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