Key Points
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Two fires at Novelis’ factory in Oswego, New York, have disrupted aluminum production for major automakers, including Ford.
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Ford expects to offset about half of the $2 billion loss from this disruption by the end of 2026.
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U.S. sales of Ford’s F-Series trucks declined 13% in May 2023 and remain down 15% year-to-date.
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) faces significant challenges due to disruptions from two fires at Novelis’ Oswego, New York facility, impacting aluminum supply crucial for its F-Series trucks. These incidents have cost Ford up to $2 billion, leading the automaker to lower its profit forecast for 2025. As a result, F-Series inventory was reported at approximately 183,900 units at the end of May 2023, a 16% decrease compared to the previous year.
Production at Novelis has recently resumed, allowing Ford to potentially recover about half of the lost revenue by the end of 2026. Analysts project Ford’s adjusted EBIT could range from $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion in 2026, as the company aims to regain lost sales and navigate a favorable regulatory environment.
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