As of today, July WTI crude oil is up by $0.99 (1.56%), reaching a 1.5-month high, while July RBOB gasoline has risen by $0.0052 (0.25%). This price increase is supported by stronger-than-expected economic indicators, including a US May nonfarm payroll increase of 139,000 versus the expected 126,000, and a Eurozone Q1 GDP revision to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter. Additionally, easing US-China trade tensions and a rise in S&P 500 confidence further bolster crude prices.
Contributing to the bullish outlook, wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have shut down nearly 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude production, representing about 7% of the country’s total output. Contrarily, signs of a global oil supply glut persist, with inventories rising by 170 million barrels over the past 100 days. Furthermore, OPEC+ plans to raise production by 411,000 bpd in July and September in response to market conditions.
Additional factors include a 28% week-over-week decline in crude stored on stationary tankers and recent sanctions from the US targeting Iranian oil shipments, which could further tighten global supplies. The latest EIA report indicates US crude inventories were 7% below the seasonal 5-year average, highlighting the potential for ongoing price support in the oil market.
