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On September 20, 2023, WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.12%, reaching +0.73, while RBOB gasoline prices fell by 0.69%, down -0.0145. Progress in U.S. trade talks, particularly agreements with Japan and potential deals with the European Union, is providing support for crude oil prices despite a strong dollar and mixed U.S. economic indicators.
Key data shows U.S. initial unemployment claims dropped by 4,000 to 217,000, a three-month low, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, below expectations. Additionally, Iraq plans to boost crude exports from the Kurdish region by 230,000 barrels per day once operations resume, which may exert downward pressure on oil prices amidst a global surplus. As of July 18, U.S. crude oil inventories were 8.6% below the seasonal average, while oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 422, the lowest level in 3.75 years.
OPEC+ recently agreed to increase crude production by 548,000 bpd starting August 1, with plans for additional increases to continue until September 2026. However, there are discussions of pausing further production hikes in light of potential demand slowdowns.
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