March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) has declined by 88 points (-1.48%) to a 1.5-week low, while March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) is down 48 points (-1.11%). This drop is attributed to favorable weather conditions in West Africa, which are expected to enhance cocoa yields and supply, thus putting downward pressure on prices.
Cocoa farmers in the Ivory Coast reported shipments totaling 895,544 metric tons (MT) from October 1 to December 14, marking a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last year. Additionally, the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and significantly higher than last year’s crop, contributing to pessimism about future price stability. In contrast, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports fell to a nine-month low of 1,642,801 bags.
Despite these bearish indicators, Citigroup has revised its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus estimate to 79,000 MT from 134,000 MT, potentially offering some support for cocoa prices. However, diminished global demand is also a concern, as seen by disappointing sales reported by major chocolate makers, further complicating the market outlook.
