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As of today, October NY world sugar #11 is down 0.02 (-0.12%) and October London ICE white sugar #5 is down 0.50 (-0.11%). This decline follows a significant drop in the sugar market, with NY sugar hitting a 2.5-week low and London sugar reaching a 2-week low. The decline is largely attributed to speculation that India might increase its sugar exports due to a favorable monsoon season, which has resulted in 6% above-normal cumulative rainfall as of July 21.
In addition, Brazil is expected to boost its sugar production, with sugar mills projected to crush 54% of available cane this month, adding 3.2 million metric tons (MMT) to the market. India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories anticipates a 19% year-on-year increase in sugar production to 35 MMT by the 2025/26 season after a projected 17.5% decrease in the previous year. Concerns remain regarding the global sugar market, with a projected surplus of 7.5 MMT for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years.
Recent data also indicates a robust demand for sugar, highlighted by China’s June sugar imports soaring by 1,435% to 420,000 MT. However, conflicting reports from Brazil indicate a cumulative production drop of 14.3% year-on-year to 12.249 MMT through June for the 2025/26 season, suggesting a volatile market moving forward.
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