Wynn Stock Anticipates Earnings Decline Amid Market Challenges

Wynn Stock (NASDAQ: WYNN) is set to announce its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. Analysts predict earnings of $1.24 per share, alongside anticipated revenue of $1.74 billion. This marks a 5% decrease in earnings year-over-year and a 6% decline in revenue when compared to last year’s figures of $1.30 per share and $1.86 billion. Historically, Wynn’s Stock has shown a pattern of underperforming post-earnings announcements, declining 60% of the time with a median one-day drop of 2% and a maximum fall of 9%.

Despite facing short-term issues, including macroeconomic pressures and tariff uncertainties, WYNN is focusing on long-term growth. The company aims to expand by targeting premium customers and increasing its market share. Through refined pricing strategies and disciplined cost management, WYNN is pursuing organic growth. As of now, the company has a market capitalization of $8.5 billion, generated $7.1 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, and reported an operating profit of $1.1 billion with net income of $501 million.

Evaluating Historical Performance Preceding Earnings Release

For event-driven traders, examining past performance trends and how actual results align with analyst expectations may yield valuable insights leading up to the earnings release. Notably, if lower volatility is preferred, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative approach, having outperformed the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since inception.

Wynn Resorts’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are key observations regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• Out of 20 recorded earnings data points over the last five years, there have been 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, indicating positive returns occurred about 40% of the time.
• This percentage increases to 42% when reviewing the last three years.
• The median for the positive returns is 5.9%, while the median for the negative returns stands at -2.0%.

Additional data on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings is summarized in the table below.

Understanding Correlation Between Short and Medium-Term Returns

A prudent investment strategy may involve analyzing correlations between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings. Identifying pairs with the highest correlation can guide transaction decisions. For instance, if the correlation between 1D and 5D returns is strong, a positive 1D post-earnings return might suggest positioning long for the next five days.

Peer Influence on Earnings Reactions

Peer performance can influence post-earnings Stock reactions. Pricing for Wynn’s earnings may begin reflecting peer performances ahead of the official announcement. Historical data showcases Wynn Resorts Stock performance compared to peers reporting earnings just before Wynn Resorts.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.