Early Monday, U.S. stock futures rose amidst speculation of a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Oil prices surged, with crude oil jumping over 11% on Thursday, while the Nasdaq ended the trading session slightly up, breaking an extreme negative correlation that had existed since the start of “Operation Epic Fury” on February 28th. OPEC+ reported an increase in production by 206,000 barrels daily, aimed at stabilizing the oil market.
A positive trend was also observed in the Strait of Hormuz, which recorded the highest vessel traffic since March 1st. In a hopeful sign for equities, 59 S&P 500 companies provided positive earnings per share guidance for Q1 2026, the highest in five years. Historically, following recent lows in market breadth, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 6.8% over the next three months.
