Keith Kaplan, CEO of TradeSmith, presented findings at the recent Breakthrough 2026 event revealing that certain seasonal patterns in stock market performance can provide an edge in investing. By analyzing over 2 quintillion historical prices from 5,000 stocks, Kaplan’s research showed an 83% historical accuracy in stock movements based on calendar windows dating back to the 1990s.
One notable example includes Boston Beer, which has seen average gains of 6.6% during a seasonal “green zone” consistently entering on October 6 each year for the past 15 years. Similarly, Nvidia has shown average gains of 6.5% on October 23, rising in 13 out of the last 15 years. These movements demonstrate that predictable seasonal trends can yield reliable investment strategies regardless of market conditions.
Kaplan argues that understanding these patterns can help investors navigate today’s unpredictable market climate, where traditional forecasts often fall short. A portfolio designed around these seasonal windows turned an initial investment of $10,000 into $85,700 over 18 years, highlighting the potential effectiveness of this strategy.
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