Predicting Pfizer Stock’s Reaction to Upcoming Earnings Report

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) will announce its earnings on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. Over the last five years, the stock has exhibited an even split between positive and negative returns following earnings announcements. Specifically, when returns are positive, the stock has achieved a median one-day return of 2.7%, with a peak single-day increase of 6.1%.

Analysts project earnings of $0.68 per share on revenue of $14.11 billion. This forecast indicates a decline from the previous year’s earnings of $0.82 per share on sales of $14.88 billion. For Pfizer, Vyndaqel will likely act as a primary growth driver, contributing to double-digit sales growth excluding Covid-19 products.

While post-earnings stock movement will rely on results compared to investor expectations, historical performance data can inform event-driven traders. Two potential strategies include:

1. Positioning before earnings based on historical patterns
2. Entering a trade one day after the announcement based on the correlation between immediate and medium-term post-earnings returns

Pfizer’s Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are key observations about one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• In the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points, resulting in 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, indicating that positive returns occurred approximately 50% of the time.
• This percentage remains consistent at 50% when reviewing the last 3 years instead of 5.
• The median for positive returns is 2.7%, while for negative returns it is -1.3%.

Additional data on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings can be found in the accompanying table below.

PFE 1D, 5D, and 21D post earnings return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy is to examine the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings. Traders can identify pairs with the highest correlation and execute the appropriate trades. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns show a strong correlation, a trader may choose to take a long position for the next five days following a positive 1D post-earnings return.

PFE Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Influence of Peer Earnings on Stock Reactions

Performance of peer companies can sometimes affect the stock reaction post-earnings. This influence may start before earnings are officially announced. Historical data highlights Pfizer’s post-earnings stock performance compared to peers that reported their earnings shortly before Pfizer’s announcement.

PFE Correlation With Peer earnings

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.