Projected Outlook for Rivian Automotive Stock Over the Next Year

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Rivian’s Production and Market Performance

Electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) saw its stock drop from a peak market capitalization of $153.3 billion in 2021 to approximately $21.5 billion as of now. The company’s stock, currently trading at around $17, has a valuation that is only three times its expected revenue for 2026, in stark contrast to competitors like Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which trades at 14 times next year’s sales.

In 2022, Rivian produced 24,337 vehicles and delivered 20,332, generating $1.66 billion in revenue and incurring a net loss of $6.75 billion. In 2023, production doubled to 57,232 vehicles and deliveries reached 50,122, with revenue also increasing to $4.43 billion (net loss: $5.43 billion). Rivian expects to deliver only 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles in 2025, forecasting revenue of $5.37 billion and narrowing its net loss to $3.82 billion.

Rivian anticipates launching its cheaper R2 SUV in 2026, aiming for revenue growth of 28% to $6.87 billion while narrowing its net loss to $3.66 billion. Success hinges on a timely rollout of the R2; failure could lead to further declines in its stock value.

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