Projected Reactions to Chevron’s Q1 Earnings Release: Insights and Analysis

Published On: May 5, 2025 12:45 am

Chevron Set to Reveal Q1 Earnings Amid Declining Profit Projections

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) will release its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Friday, May 2, 2025. Analysts anticipate earnings of $2.15 per share, totaling $48.39 billion in revenue. If met, this would indicate a 28% drop in earnings year-over-year, despite a 4% increase in sales compared to last year’s figures of $2.97 per share and $46.74 billion in revenue. Historically, Chevron’s stock has often declined after earnings announcements, with 53% of announcements resulting in an average one-day drop of 3.5% and a peak decline of 7%.

Chevron has indicated that demand could soften, influenced by U.S. tariffs and OPEC’s increased production, yet it remains steadfast in its capital spending strategy. The company boasts a robust financial standing, reflected by a market capitalization of $238 billion, trailing twelve-month revenue of $193 billion, and a net income of $18 billion. Upcoming performance will heavily hinge on actual results aligning with consensus estimates, but historical trading patterns may suggest potential downside risks for event-driven investors assessing short-term strategies.

Event-Driven Trading Insights

For event-driven traders, understanding historical patterns may offer a strategic edge, whether preemptively positioning for earnings or responding to market movements afterward. If you prefer less volatility compared to individual stocks, considering alternative portfolios, such as high-quality funds, might be advantageous, particularly those that have historically outperformed indices like the S&P 500.

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Chevron’s Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some key observations regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

Over the last five years, there are 19 recorded earnings data points, resulting in 9 positive and 10 negative 1D returns. This indicates that positive returns occurred approximately 47% of the time.
This percentage increases to 64% when examining the last three years instead of five.
The median of the 9 positive returns is 1.2%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -3.5%.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings is a more cautious strategy. Finding pairs with the highest correlation helps traders execute informed decisions. For instance, if there is a strong correlation between 1D and 5D returns, a trader can consider going long for five days if the 1D post-earnings return is favorable. Here is some correlation data derived from the 5-year and 3-year historical perspectives. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.