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As of today, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN25) has decreased by 23 points (-0.24%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN25) is down by 79 points (-1.20%). Cocoa prices fell to a 1-1/2 week low, influenced by improving rainfall forecasts in West Africa, which could boost cocoa crop yields. Forecasts indicate persistent showers in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest cocoa-producing countries.
Despite recent price declines, concerns about tighter future cocoa supplies persist. Nigerian April cocoa exports fell by 11% year-on-year to 18,561 metric tons, and cocoa inventories in U.S. ports reached an 8-3/4 month high of 2,259,665 bags. In addition, the Ivory Coast’s cocoa shipments reached 1.64 million metric tons from October 1 to June 8, a 7.2% increase from last year but down from a previous 35% rise noted in December.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 metric tons, the largest in over 60 years, citing a 13.1% year-on-year drop in production to 4.38 million metric tons. Future projections estimate a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024/25, the first in four years.
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