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On Tuesday, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) closed up +0.21 (+1.34%), while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) rose +3.60 (+0.75%). This increase followed a nearly +1% rally in WTI crude oil (CLV25), which triggered short covering in sugar futures as stronger crude prices encourage global sugar mills to focus more on ethanol production.
Recent reports indicate that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output for the first half of August rose by +16% year-over-year to 3,615 million tons, leading to expectations of higher sugar supplies. Despite the rise, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output is down -4.7% year-over-year to 22.886 million tons. Additionally, India’s sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by +19% year-over-year to 35 million tons, further impacting global sugar prices.
Concerns about abundant sugar supplies were reiterated by commodities trader Czarnikow’s projection of a 7.5 million ton global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season. The USDA forecasted a record global sugar production of 189.318 million tons for the same period, with ending stocks expected to rise by +7.5% year-over-year to 41.188 million tons.
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