Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Today begins with a flurry of economic news hitting the markets ahead of the trading session. Pre-market futures are mixed, with the blue-chip Dow showing positive movement. Bond yields are low yet stable, with the 10-year sitting at 4.23% and the 2-year at 3.71% as of this hour.

Advance Trade Balance Reaches Record Low

The March Advance Trade Balance on Goods report has been released, showing a record low of -$162 billion, adjusted from -$147.8 billion the month prior. This decline has been significant since the presidential election last November, with February being the only month to show minor improvement. This survey has been conducted since January 1989.

Advance Retail Inventories unexpectedly shifted from the anticipated +0.1% to -0.1%. Analysts had forecasted a growth of +0.4%, making this report notably disappointing. Since July of last year, which recorded +1.0%, inventory figures have consistently declined, with the previous month’s +0.1% now revised down to -0.1%.

Advance Wholesale Inventories came in at +0.5%, falling short of the +0.6% consensus estimate, although this matches February’s upwardly revised figure. January still holds the recent peak at +0.8%. Moving forward, we might see changes in trade balances due to upcoming tariff policies reflected in next month’s results.

Q1 Earnings Overview: PayPal, Pfizer, GM & More

PayPal (PYPL) reported a mixed Q1, beating earnings expectations with $1.33 per share compared to the projected $1.15, a +15.65% increase. However, revenues of $7.79 billion fell short by -0.23%. Shares saw a +1% increase this morning but remain down over -20% year-to-date.

Pfizer (PFE) also reported solid earnings, with a +43.75% increase on earnings of 92 cents per share, exceeding the expected 64 cents. However, revenues dropped by -0.88% to $13.72 billion. Shares are flat in pre-market trading, down -13% year-to-date.

General Motors (GM) exceeded both revenue and earnings expectations, reporting earnings of $2.78 per share against the estimated $2.69, marking a +3.35% increase. Revenue stood at $44.02 billion, surpassing estimates by +3.57%. Despite these results, tariff challenges have led to a -2.5% decline in shares pre-market, down -11.3% year-to-date.

Honeywell (HON) exceeded estimates by +13.57% with earnings of $2.51 per share versus the anticipated $2.21. Quarterly sales hit $9.82 billion, beating estimates by +2.59%. Strong performance in military drones is contributing to these results, leading to nearly a +4% increase in shares ahead of open.

Spotify (SPOT), faced significant challenges, missing Q1 earnings expectations by over -50% with earnings of $1.13 per share, falling short of the $2.29 predicted. Revenues of $4.41 billion also missed estimates by -4.08%, resulting in a -7% decrease in shares in pre-market trading.

Upcoming Market Insights

Later today, we will receive the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) results. Analysts expect a decrease from last month’s 7.57 million to about 7.5 million. Recently, these figures have shown volatility but have remained below the 8 million mark since March 2024. The peak was noted in March 2022 with 12.1 million job openings.

Consumer Confidence for April is also set to be released, with expectations dropping from 92.9 in March to 87.3. Earlier in 2025, consumer confidence consistently exceeded 100, but rising prices and economic uncertainty are exerting pressure.

After the market closes, earnings reports will include notable companies like Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), Seagate Technologies (STX), and Snap (SNAP). However, significant reports from leading companies such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) won’t arrive until Wednesday afternoon.

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Zacks Identifies #1 Semiconductor Stock

A new semiconductor stock has emerged, showing considerable potential. While it’s only a fraction of the size of NVIDIA, it has significant growth potential and is well-positioned in the market.