Cocoa prices surged on January 8, 2024, with March ICE NY cocoa closing up by 3.51% at +206. March ICE London cocoa #7 rose by 2.57% at +109, driven by decreasing cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast, which shipped 1.073 million metric tons (MMT) from October 1 to January 4, a decline of 3.3% from the previous year.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently revised its global cocoa production estimates for 2024/25 down to 4.69 MMT from 4.84 MMT, predicting a smaller surplus of 49,000 MT compared to previous estimates. Additionally, cocoa inventories at U.S. ports have dropped to their lowest level in 9.5 months, with 1,626,105 bags reported on December 26, 2023.
Concerns over weak global cocoa demand are evident, with a 17% decline in Q3 cocoa grindings in Asia and a 4.8% dip in Europe year-over-year. Despite this, favorable weather conditions have led to higher cocoa pod counts in West Africa, with Mondelez reporting counts 7% above the five-year average.
