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Arabica coffee prices surged to a 3.5-week high, with December arabica coffee (KCZ25) up by 10.65 cents (+2.76%). In contrast, November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) dropped 47 cents (-1.03%). The price increase in arabica is primarily due to severe dry conditions in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, which received only 20.2 mm of rain, 48% of the historical average, raising concerns about the 2026/27 crop.
ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 498,088 bags, while robusta inventories dropped to a 2.75-month low of 6,228 lots. Additionally, U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee are tightening due to 50% tariffs, impacting about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee sourcing.
In contrast, robusta coffee prices are pressured by increased supplies from Vietnam, where coffee exports from January to September 2025 rose by 10.9% year-on-year to 1.230 million metric tons. The USDA projects a global coffee production increase to 178.68 million bags for 2025/26, with Brazil’s production expected to rise to 65 million bags, despite a growing deficit in arabica coffee.
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