As of today, May arabica coffee (KCK26) is up 1.40% to $4.05, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) has increased by 0.83% to $31. Coffee prices are impacted by global supply concerns, particularly due to the ongoing war in Iran, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and driven up shipping rates and costs for importers. Brazil’s February coffee exports have also dropped 17.4% year-over-year to 142,000 metric tons, contributing to price increases.
Colombia’s coffee production fell 34% year-over-year to 893,000 bags in January, further tightening global supplies, while beneficial rains in Brazil’s Minas Gerais are improving farmers’ outlook on crop yields. Projections suggest Brazil’s 2026 coffee production could reach a record 66.2 million bags, with arabica up 23.2% to 44.1 million bags and robusta up 6.3% to 22.1 million bags. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 14% year-over-year in Jan-Feb 2026 to 366,000 metric tons, which could exert downward pressure on robusta prices.
