May arabica coffee (KCK26) is up by +6.75 (+2.35%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) is up by +82 (+2.31%) amid rising prices linked to the ongoing Iran conflict, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global shipping. The closure has led to increased shipping rates and costs for coffee importers.
Despite the price gains, favorable weather conditions in Brazil are limiting further increases, as showers are expected in key coffee-growing regions. Brazil’s coffee production for the 2026/27 season is projected to reach a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million bags, according to StoneX. In February, Brazil’s green coffee exports fell by 27% year-on-year, and overall coffee inventories are rising, which adds pressure on prices.
Vietnam’s coffee exports also impact the market, showing a 14% increase year-on-year in January-February 2026 to 366,000 MT, contributing to bearish conditions for robusta prices, as per the National Statistics Office.
