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On Wednesday, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed at $2.80 (+0.72%) and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) at $145 (+3.25%), driven by declining ICE coffee inventories due to 50% tariffs on U.S. imports from Brazil. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 446,475 bags, while robusta inventories dropped to a 3.25-month low of 6,111 lots.
The ongoing 50% tariffs have led American buyers to avoid new Brazilian coffee contracts, tightening supply, as Brazil accounts for about a third of U.S. unroasted coffee. Last week, arabica prices surged amid fears of drought in key Brazilian coffee regions, especially Minas Gerais, which received only 1% of its average rainfall during the week ended October 24.
Vietnam’s robusta coffee exports from January to September rose 10.9% year-over-year to 1.230 million metric tons. The country’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to increase by 6% year-over-year to 1.76 million metric tons, while global coffee exports for the marketing year are up by 0.2% year-over-year at 127.92 million bags.
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