On Friday, July arabica coffee closed up by $1.55 (+0.57%) while July ICE robusta coffee fell by $18 (-0.52%). The market is influenced by tight coffee inventories, with arabica stocks at a 2.5-month low of 477,045 bags and robusta inventories at a 16.5-month low of 3,724 lots.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies, driving up costs for shipping, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel. In contrast, Vietnamese coffee exports rose significantly, with exports from January to April 2026 increasing by 15.8% year-on-year to 810,000 metric tons. Brazil is also projected to see a record coffee harvest of 75.9 million bags for 2026/27, which is contributing to a forecasted global coffee surplus of 10 million bags.
Additionally, the International Coffee Organization reported a slight decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, with exports down by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects an overall rise in world coffee production for 2025/26 to 178.848 million bags, despite a decrease in arabica production and an increase in robusta output.
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