On Tuesday, May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed up 1.80 (+0.60%), while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) rose by 107 (+3.19%), reaching a one-week high. These increases are attributed to reduced coffee supplies from Brazil, which reported a 10% year-on-year decline in Mar green coffee exports to 2.65 million bags, alongside a significant 31% drop in Mar coffee exports to 151,000 MT.
Below-average rainfall in Brazil, particularly in the Minas Gerais region where only 20% of historical average rainfall was received last week, is expected to curb coffee yields. Additionally, the Brazilian real reached a two-year high against the dollar, further discouraging export sales. ICE robusta inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 3,911 lots, while arabica inventories increased to a 6.25-month high of 585,621 bags on March 18. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 14% year-on-year for the first quarter, putting pressure on robusta prices.
