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On Tuesday, March arabica coffee closed at +1.79%, up +6.75, and January ICE robusta coffee rose +2.38%, up +106, driven by adverse weather concerns impacting global coffee crops. Key reports indicate that Brazil’s largest arabica-growing area received only 49% of its historical average rainfall, while forecasts of heavy rains in Vietnam are expected to delay harvests.
As of last week, ICE arabica coffee inventories reached a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags, while robusta stocks fell to a 4.5-month low of 5,134 lots. U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee dropped 52% year-on-year from August to October, attributed to tariffs that President Trump imposed, creating tighter supply conditions for American buyers who source a significant portion of unroasted coffee from Brazil.
Conversely, forecast reports project that Brazil will produce 70.7 million bags of coffee in the 2026/27 marketing year, a 29% increase year-on-year, while Vietnam is expected to see coffee exports rise 13.4% year-on-year and production hit a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons. These factors are contributing to mixed signals in the market, despite ongoing supply concerns.
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