On Tuesday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed at +11.00 (+3.09%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) rose by +78 (+1.86%), buoyed by a stronger Brazilian real that hit a 20-month high, impacting export sales. The tight supply outlook following a reported 18.4% decrease in Brazil’s December green coffee exports, which totaled 2.86 million bags, has also supported coffee prices.
Specifically, arabica coffee exports fell by 10% year-over-year to 2.6 million bags, while robusta exports plummeted by 61% year-over-year to 222,147 bags. Additionally, Brazil’s coffee production is projected to decline by 3.1% year-over-year to 63 million bags for the 2025/26 season, as per the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service. In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee production is anticipated to increase by 6.2% year-over-year to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags, contributing to bearish market conditions for robusta coffee.
