On September 27, coffee prices rose with September arabica coffee (KCU26) increasing by $0.65 (+0.20%) and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) gaining $62 (+1.61%). This uptick followed a rise in the Brazilian real, reaching a four-week high against the dollar, which discouraged coffee exports from Brazil.
Concerns over potential disruptions from the El Niño weather pattern and a delayed coffee harvest in Brazil are driving price volatility. Brazil’s coffee harvest is reported to be only 52% complete as of July 1, lagging behind the previous year’s 60% and the five-year average of 55%. Additionally, ICE arabica coffee inventories have fallen to a 2.25-year low of 334,289 bags, supporting higher prices amidst decreasing supply.
As of last Monday, coffee exports from Vietnam rose 7.3% year-over-year to 1.05 million metric tons in the first half of 2026, further complicating the market dynamics as global production outlooks shift. The International Coffee Organization noted a slight overall decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year.
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