On August 21, September arabica coffee (KCU26) surged to a six-week high, gaining +11.90 (+3.45%), while robusta coffee (RMU26) rose by +59 (+1.61%). The upward trend is driven by a slow coffee harvest in Brazil, where the 2026/27 crop is only 90% complete as of August 12, compared to 97% last year and the five-year average of 94%. Arabica harvests in Brazil are recorded at 86% completion, trailing behind last year’s 95%.
ICE arabica coffee inventories have dropped to a 2.75-year low of 231,340 bags, providing additional support for prices. Conversely, robusta inventories have increased to a 5.25-month high of 4,622 lots. Following a recent earthquake in Colombia, a major arabica producer, coffee exports via the Buenaventura port have been partially resumed, despite intermittent disruptions.
Forecasts by the USDA anticipate a 6% global coffee output rise for the 2026-27 season, reaching a record 189.7 million bags. This is primarily attributed to favorable growing conditions in Brazil, although concerns regarding an El Niño weather pattern may adversely impact Brazil’s next crop.
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