Coffee prices experienced an uptick today, with July arabica coffee rising by 0.23%, attributed to concerns over potential disruptions in global coffee supplies due to escalating tensions in the US-Iran conflict and the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being closed. Current shipping issues have led to increased global costs for coffee importers and roasters.
In contrast, expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop may negatively impact prices. Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is projected to rise by 12% year-on-year to 71.4 million bags, with estimates from various sources indicating a potential record high of up to 75.9 million bags. In Vietnam, robusta coffee exports surged by 15.8% year-on-year in early 2026, further contributing to bearish market sentiment, despite current tight arabica supply aiding in price support.
ICE arabica coffee inventories recently fell to a 2.25-month low of 494,508 bags, while robusta stocks dropped to a 16.25-month low of 3,755 lots. Global coffee exports for the current marketing year have decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 138.658 million bags, as reported by the International Coffee Organization.
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