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As of today, December arabica coffee prices rose by $6.15 (+1.49%) and November ICE robusta coffee prices increased by $115 (+2.49%). Coffee prices have reached 5-week highs due to declining ICE coffee inventories, with arabica stocks at a 19-month low of 467,110 bags and robusta stocks at a 3-month low of 6,141 lots.
The significant drawdown in inventories is attributed to a 50% tariff on US imports from Brazil, which has led American buyers to avoid new contracts for Brazilian coffee, tightening US supplies. Vietnam’s coffee production is also under threat from heavy rains due to Tropical Storm Fengshen, raising concerns about crop damage.
In addition, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects that global coffee production for 2025/26 will rise by 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags, despite an anticipated arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags. Notably, Brazil’s coffee crop estimate was recently cut by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, adding further pressure on coffee prices.
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