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December arabica coffee prices rose by 1.16% to $4.70 per pound, while November ICE robusta coffee increased by 1.53% to $69 per lot, driven by supply concerns and the anticipation of new tariffs on Colombian coffee from President Trump.
As of last Friday, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 19-month low of 467,110 bags, while robusta coffee inventories decreased to a 3-month low of 6,160 lots. The ongoing 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports have led to a significant tightening of U.S. supplies, as one-third of unroasted coffee in the U.S. is sourced from Brazil.
Forecasts from Conab indicate a 4.9% reduction in Brazil’s arabica coffee crop for 2025 to 35.2 million bags, while the USDA projects a global coffee production increase to 178.68 million bags for 2025/26, with Brazil expected to produce 65 million bags and Vietnam projected to harvest a record 31 million bags.
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