As of today, September arabica coffee (KCU26) rose by 1.40 cents (+0.51%) to reach a six-week high, while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) increased by 73 cents (+2.04%). The surge is largely attributed to renewed rainfall in Brazil, which is delaying the coffee harvest and raising concerns about crop quality. Meteorologists estimate that more than 50 millimeters (2 inches) of rain is expected in southern Brazil this week.
ICE inventories for arabica coffee fell to a 2.25-year low of 392,901 bags, while robusta coffee inventories increased to a 2.25-month high of 4,032 lots after previously hitting a 2-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15. Concerns regarding a potential “Super El Niño” weather pattern this year indicate a 67% probability, which could disrupt coffee production in Brazil and Asia, impacting future crop yields.
In the context of global coffee trade, exports from Vietnam increased by 7.9% year-over-year to 922,000 metric tons in the first five months of 2026. Conversely, the International Coffee Organization reported a slight 0.3% decrease in global coffee exports year-over-year, totaling 138.658 million bags.
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