On Monday, May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed up by +7.70 (+2.70%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) rose by +20 (+0.58%) amid concerns over disrupted global shipping caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has elevated shipping rates, insurance, and fuel costs, impacting coffee importers and roasters.
Brazil’s recent rainfall has improved crop prospects, with Minas Gerais receiving 57.7 mm of rain, 139% above historical averages. StoneX has raised Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million bags. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica inventories increased to a 5.5-month high of 581,830 bags, contributing to price pressures.
Vietnam reported a 14% increase in coffee exports for Jan-Feb 2026, totaling 366,000 MT, exacerbating bearish trends for robusta prices. Overall, the International Coffee Organization indicated global coffee exports for the current marketing year fell by 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags.
