On February 12, 2023, sugar prices hit a 5.25-year low, influenced by a global sugar surplus projected at 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26, according to analysts from Czarnikow. In response to rising crude oil prices, May NY world sugar #11 increased by 0.58% to $0.1381 per pound, while May London ICE white sugar #5 rose 0.15% to $407.20 per ton.
In Brazil, sugar output for the current crop year is expected to rise by 0.9% year-over-year to 40.24 MMT, despite a 36% year-on-year decline in production during January. Conversely, India reported a 12% year-on-year increase in sugar output to 24.75 MMT from October 1 to February 28, with expectations of a total of 29.3 MMT for the 2025/26 period. Notably, India’s government approved an additional 500,000 MT of sugar for export, raising total allocations to 2 million MT for the 2025/26 season.
Thailand forecasts a 5% increase in sugar production to 10.5 MMT for the 2025/26 crop year, contributing to a broader bullish outlook for global sugar supply. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects global sugar production will rise by 4.6% to a record 189.318 MMT for 2025/26, with consumption increasing by 1.4% to 177.921 MMT.
