As of today, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) has increased by 2.25% to $0.35, reaching a 5.5-month high, while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) is up 1.67% to $7.60. Sugar prices are being influenced by a +4% rise in crude oil prices, which could lead to a reduction in sugar production as mills shift towards ethanol.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have curtailed approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade, impacting refined sugar availability. In contradiction, projections indicate a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, an increase following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26, as reported by Czarnikow Analysts. Meanwhile, India’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated at 29.3 MMT, a 12% increase year-on-year, as the country prepares for additional exports, further complicating the market dynamic.
