Sugar prices rose on May 3, 2023, with New York world sugar #11 closing at $13.54 per pound, up 1.04%, and London ICE white sugar #5 at $418.10 per metric ton, up 0.40%. This follows a significant increase in crude oil prices, which rose more than 3%, leading to concerns about reduced sugar supply as more sugar cane may be diverted to ethanol production.
The USDA forecasted a 3% decline in Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27, estimating it at 42.5 million metric tons due to sugar mills prioritizing ethanol. Further impacting global sugar prices, Covrig Analytics and Czarnikow both lowered their global surplus estimates for 2026/27 significantly, with projections cut from 1.4 million metric tons to 800,000 metric tons, and from 3.4 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons, respectively.
Additionally, India reported an increase in its sugar production by 7.7% year-on-year to 27.48 million metric tons for the 2025-26 season, which could potentially enhance its export capabilities. The International Sugar Organization also projected a 1.22 million metric ton surplus for 2025-26, driven by increased output from major producers like India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
