**Sugar Prices Surge Amid Crude Oil Spike**
Sugar prices have risen sharply today, with May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) increasing by 3.06% to $0.42 per pound and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) up 2.29% to $9.30 per ton. This rise comes as WTI crude oil prices surged by over 11% to a 2.25-year high, prompting sugar mills to potentially pivot more toward ethanol production, which may squeeze sugar supply.
Despite this uptick, analysts from Czarnikow project a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a smaller surplus of 1.22 MMT for 2025/26 compared to an earlier prediction of 1.63 MMT, driven largely by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. As a counter, Brazil has reported a significant drop in sugar production, falling by 36% year-over-year in late January.
